To paraphrase Keynes, China can stay irrational in the South China Sea much longer than the US can stay solvent. Literally.
China’s economy is already much bigger than the US’s, much more productive of real goods (including weapons: it launched three nuclear submarines in one week last year) and it can spend an almost unlimited amount in the SCS – where it lagged the rest of ASEAN until the US stirred things up.
The continued hope that China will be unable to afford to compete because its economy will fail makes little sense.
Praying for, predicting and assuming a Chinese crash isn’t a strategy, yet seems to be the only strategy we’ve got. It goes unexamined despite 40 years of utter failure during which China surpassed the USA in two vital areas: economics and diplomacy.
Economically, China is now 20-30% bigger than the US and and growing three times faster. Commanders win battles; economies win wars.
Diplomatically, China has been doing solid work around the globe, this month’s example of which is the commencement of negotiations between the US and China on international cyber law.
The rules are China’s agenda and China has near-unanimous support for them from every head of state in the world. Sovereignty hasn’t entirely gone out of style.
When President Obama tried to ambush Xi on cyberspying before his visit to the USA, Xi simply called the CEOs of America’s leading tech companies to join him for dinner at Bill Gates’ house in Seattle. (Who could resist the opportunity: meet the President of China and see Bill’s mansion?)
They met and he re-stated China’s position on cyber-spying and asked them to explain to President Obama that it had their support – and that they did not support bogus attacks on China for cyber-spying.
Obama never mentioned the issue again. The US is now negotiating China’s Rules of the Road in Cyberspace because Bill and Larry and Larry and Mark and Tim and every head of state on earth has already endorsed them. It’s a fait accompli.
That’s superb diplomacy. Can the US play in that league?
By Godfree Roberts <godfree@gmail.com>