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———. “South Korean Outlines Muscular  Military Posture.” New York Times, 3 December 2010.

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[1] I am very grateful for comments and corrections from Don Borrie, Steve Gowans, Ankie Hoogvelt, and Peter Wilson.  All mistakes, of course, remain my responsibility.

[2] Zbigniew Brzezinski, “America and China’s first big test,” Financial Times, 23 November 2010.

[3] Siegfried S. Hecker, “Lessons Learned from the North Korean Nuclear Crises,” Nautilus Policy Forum Online 10-055 (2010), ———, “A Return Trip to North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Complex,” Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University 2010, Siegfried S.  Hecker, “Return trip to North Korea (presentation)

” in Korea Economic Institute (Washington, DC: 2010).

[4] This is the Northern spelling; for simplicity I have used the Southern spelling throughout.

[5] Praveen Swami, “Analysis: Why apocalypse won’t be now,” Global News, 23 November 2010.

[6] Editorial, “China must exert influence on Korea,” Evening Standard, 23 November 2010.

[7] This is the theme of my forthcoming book on the Cheonan incident

[8] “Kim Jong-il’s Visit to Coast Raises Suspicions,” Chosun Ilbo, 25 November 2010.

[9] Steve  Herman, “Secret Manual Gives Glimpse of North Korean Military Tactics,” VOA 2010.

[10] Jae-hoon Lee, “Clinton announces new sanctions against N.Korea,” Hankyoreh, 22 July 2010.

[11] Ha-won Jung, “Minister: Transfer of wartime control may be delayed,” JoongAng Ilbo, 25 June 2010, “DPRK criticizes U.S. delay in transferring OPCON to South Korea,” Xinhua, 1 July 2010.

[12] Min-seok Kim and Myo-ja Ser, “U.S. will command military exercise,” JoongAng Ilbo, 17 June 2010, Sung-ki Jung, “USFK to retake control over drill with ROK,” Korea Times, 17 June 2010.

[13] Dick K.  Nanto, Mark E. Manyin, and Kerry  Dumbaugh, “China-North Korea Relations,” Congressional Research Service, 22 January 2010.

[14] Rick Rozoff, “U.S. Tightens Missile Shield Encirclement Of China And Russia,” Global Research, 4 March 2010.

[15] Hyuk-chul Kwon, “Joint drills will be far from NLL, military reports,” Hankyoreh, 27 November 2010.

[16] “Construction of USS George Washington,” US Navy, http://gw.ffc.navy.mil/AboutGW/ConstructionofGW.htm.

[17] David Guttenfelder and Jean E. Lee, “US, SKorea launch war games,” Washington Post, 28 November 2010.

[18] “War Maniacs Warned Not to Run Amuck,” KCNA, 15 March 2009.

[19] Jung-eon Park, “N.Korea fires artillery shells toward Yeonpyeong Island, killing two marines,” Hankyoreh, 23 November 2010.

[20] There have been suggestions that the US withdrew from Hoguk after the clash

[21] “31st Marine Expeditionary Unit,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/31st_Marine_Expeditionary_Unit, “31st Marine Expeditionary Unit home page,”  http://www.marines.mil/unit/31stmeu/Pages/default.aspx, “31st MEU reflects on 2009,” US Marine Corps News, 11 December 2009, Rebekka S Cpl.. Heite, “31st MEU’s long-range raid capabilities tested,” US Air Force (Andersen Air Force Base), 15 April 2010.

[22] Tetsuo  Kotani, “Tip of the Spear: the 13 Missions for US Marines in Okinawa,” PacNet 43 (2010).

[23] Ji-sook Bae, “Seoul not safe from artillery attacks,” Korea Times, 26 November 2010.

[24] Alexander Frolov, “Iraq War from a Historical Perspective,” International Affairs (2010).

[25] “U.S. to blame for derailing process of denuclearisation on Korean Peninsula,” KCNA, 12 May 2003.

[26] Tim Lister, “North Korea’s military aging but sizable,” CNN, 25 November 2010.

[27] It is difficult to gauge the KPA capacity.  The North has a motive for boasting about it , but there is also an incentive for the South to exaggerate; “N.Korea ‘Has 180,000 Special Forces Ready to Cross into South’,” Chosun Ilbo, 16 June 2010.

[28] “South Korea-U.S. “Combined Forces Command” Should Be Disbanded Forthwith,” KCNA, 10 November 2008.

[29] “Former S Korean leader ‘rowed’ with Clinton,” BBC, 17 January 2003.

[30] Jong-goo Lee, “Interpreter Works 27 Years for Korea-US Summits,” Korea Times, 23 June 2005.

[31] “Seoul Simulated Bombing of N.Korean Nuclear Plant,” Chosun Ilbo, 6 June 2005.

[32] Bill  Gertz, “U.S. speeds attack plans for North Korea,” Washington Times, 3 November 2006.

[33] Jae-yun  Shim and Jin Ryu, “Roh Tries to Curb Hawkish US Policy,” Korea Times, 14 November 2004, Dong-ho Yoo, “`US May Launch Surgical Strikes on NK’,” Korea Times, 5 October 2004.

[34] Niall Ferguson, “America, the fragile empire,” Los Angeles Times, 28 February 2010.

[35] “Protests across U.S. to demand: “No New Korean War!”,” ANSWER Coalition, 27 November 2010.

[36] For a good analysis of the NLL in the context of the Yeonpyeong clash see Stephen Gowans, “US Ultimately to Blame for Korean Skirmishes in Yellow Sea,” What’s Left, 5 December 2010.

[37] Jon M. Van Dykea, Mark J.  Valencia, and Jenny Miller Garmendia, “The North/South Korea Boundary Dispute in the Yellow (West) Sea,” Marine Policy 27, no. 2 (2003).

[38] “DPRK Takes Merciless Action to Defend MDL “, KCNA, 13 November 2009, Sang-hun Choe, “Korean Navies Skirmish in Disputed Waters,” New York Times, 10 November 2009.

[39] “South Korea deviated from previous rules of engagement in West Sea clash,” Hankyoreh, 11 November 2009.

[40] Nicole Finnemann, “The Sinking of the Cheonan,” Korea Insight, 1 April 2010.

[41] Van Dykea, Valencia, and Garmendia, “The North/South Korea Boundary Dispute in the Yellow (West) Sea.”

[42] John Barry Kotch and Michael  Abbey, “Ending naval clashes on the Northern Limit Line and the quest for a West Sea peace regime,” Asian Perspectives 27, no. 2 (2003).

[43] “KPA navy command’s important communique,” KCNA, 23 March 2000, “Northern Limit Line rejected,” KCNA, 2 August 2002.

[44] “DPRK Foreign Ministry’s Spokesman Blasts U.S. Delaying Tactics in Solution of Nuclear Issue,” KCNA, 28 March 2008.

[45] “KPA Panmunjom Mission Clarifies Revolutionary Armed Forces’ Principled Stand,” KCNA, 27 May 2009.

[46] Mark Thompson, “There’s No Business Like the Arms Business,” Time, 14 September 2010, Richard F. Grimmett, “Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 2002-2009,” Congressional Research Service, 10 September 2010, Roula  Khalaf and James  Drummond, “Gulf states in $123bn US arms spree,” Financial Times, 20 September 2010.

[47] Hazel Smith, “North Korea Shipping: A Potential for WMD Proliferation?,” East-West Center: AsiaPacific Issues, no. 87 (2009).

[48] “Russia’s Cheonan investigation suspects that the sinking Cheonan ship was caused by a mine in water,” Hankyoreh, 28 July 2010.

[49] “The Best Weapons Are Useless if Strategy Is Inept,” Chosun Ilbo, 1 December 2010.

[50] Keith B. Richburg and William  Branigin, “North Korea fires artillery at South Korean island of Yeongpyeong,” Washington Post, 23 November 2010.

[51] “DPRK Foreign Ministry’s Spokesman Blasts U.S. Delaying Tactics in Solution of Nuclear Issue.”

[52] Ibid.

[53] “N.Korea Cites S.Korean Drill as Excuse for Attack,” Chosun Ilbo, 24 November 2010.

[54] “S. Korean Accused of Dangerous Provocations “, KCNA, 4 June 2010.

[55] “KPA Command Vows to Counter S. Korean Drill by Physical Retaliation,” KCNA, 3 August 2010.

[56] “Yeonpyeong Island: A history,” Telegraph, 23 November 2010.

[57] “Seoul Warns of ‘Severe Punishment’ Over N.Korean Attack,” Chosun Ilbo, 24 November 2010.

[58] Richburg and Branigin, “North Korea fires artillery at South Korean island of Yeongpyeong.”

[59] “N.Korea Cites S.Korean Drill as Excuse for Attack.”

[60] “Statement Released by Spokesman of DPRK Foreign Ministry “, KCNA, 24 November 2010.

[61] “Panmunjom Mission of KPA Sends Notice to U.S. Forces Side,” KCNA, 25 November 2010.

[62] Sang-ho Song, “N.K. artillery strikes S. Korean island,” Korea Herald, 23 November 2010.

[63] “Military Knew of N.Korean Artillery Move Before Attack,” Chosun Ilbo, 26 November 2010.

[64] “Spies Intercepted Plans for Yeonpyeong Attack in August “, Chosun Ilbo, 2 December 2010.

[65] “Kim Jong-un ‘Ordered Attack in Early November’,” Chosun Ilbo 2010.

[66] Song, “N.K. artillery strikes S. Korean island.”

[67] Tim Shorrock, “Obama’s Only Choice on North Korea,” The Daily Beast, 24 November 2010.

[68] “Lee Blasts N.Korea’s ‘Inhumane’ Attack on Yeonpyeong Island,” Chosun Ilbo, 30 November 2010.

[69] Song, “N.K. artillery strikes S. Korean island.”

[70] Min-soon Song, “Back to the basics on national security,” Hankyoreh, 26 November 2010.

[71] John Feffer, “Transparency Fundamentalists,” World Beat, 30 November 2010.

[72] “Seoul Warns of ‘Severe Punishment’ Over N.Korean Attack.”

[73] Hyung-jin Kim and Kwang-tae Kim, “SKorea boost security after NKorea attack,” Wistv, 24 November (updated 25 November) 2010.

[74] “Seoul Warns of ‘Severe Punishment’ Over N.Korean Attack.”

[75] Richburg and Branigin, “North Korea fires artillery at South Korean island of Yeongpyeong.”

[76] Keith B. Richburg, “U.S., South Korea begin military exercises, as China calls for emergency talks on North Korea,” Washington Post, 28 November 2010.

[77] Mark McDonald, “‘Crisis Status’ in South Korea After North Shells Island,” New York Times, 23 November 2010.

[78] Ian Johnson and Martin Fackler, “China Addresses Rising Korean Tensions,” New York Times, 26 November 2010.

[79] “Satellite Imagery: Tactical Details of the Korean Artillery Exchange “, Stratfor, 30 November 2010.

[80] “Hwacha,”  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hwacha.

[81] “The Devastating Power of N.Korea’s MLRS Artillery,” Chosun Ilbo, 26 November 2010.

[82] “S.Korea to Stage Fresh Firing Drill on Yeonpyeong Island,” Chosun Ilbo, 30 November 2010.

[83] “Satellite Imagery: Tactical Details of the Korean Artillery Exchange “.

[84] “Spies Intercepted Plans for Yeonpyeong Attack in August “.

[85] “Extent of NK damage remains uncertain,” Chosun Ilbo, 26 November 2010, “Military suggests counterfire caused ‘many casualties’ in N. Korea “, Yonhap, 2 December 2010, Sung-ki Jung, “Satellite image shows damages in NK artillery site,”  2010, “Military Defends Response to N.Korean Attack “, Chosun Ilbo, 3 December 2010.

[86] “Who Is to Wholly Blame for Armed Clash in West Sea of Korea,” KCNA, 27 November 2010.

[87] Nan Kim and John McGlynn, “Factsheet: WEST SEA CRISIS IN KOREA,” The Asia-Pacific Journal 49-1-10 (2010).

[88] “S. Korean Bellicose Forces’ Military Maneuvers Censured “, KCNA, 20 May 2009.

[89] The usually meticulous Gregory Elich writes of the live fire exercise from Yeonpyeong that  ’this was not the first time that such drills had been conducted’ but I can find no evidence for that. Gregory Elich, “Spiralling out of Control: The Risk of a New Korean War,” Global Research, 4 December 2010.

[90] Paul Liem, “Honor the Cheonan Dead with Peace,” Korea Policy Institute, 3 June 2010, Jon  Van Dyke, “The Maritime Boundary between North & South Korea in the Yellow (West) Sea,” 38 North, no. (2010).

[91] “KPA Supreme Command Issues Communique “, KCNA, 23 November 2010.

[92] “Obama On North Korea: North Korea’s attack on the South Korean corvette, the Cheonan, is unacceptable. ,” Voice of America, 1 July 2010.

[93] I was told by a NZ official in a discussion about the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong incidents, and the military exercises,  that he thought that both South Korea and America were behaving with great restraint.

[94] Rodger Baker and Colin Chapman, “Agenda: With Rodger Baker,” Stratfor.com, 3 December 2010.

[95] Cablegate, the WikiLeaks repository of leaked US cables was down when I tried to verify this, presumably because of a denial of service attack, and this extract comes from Peter Lee, “Dear Leader’s designs on Uncle Sam,” Asia Times Online, 4 December 2010.

[96] Kyoko Hasegawa, “Japan, US to conduct biggest ever military drill,” AFP, 2 December 2010, Eric Talmadge, “US, Japan begin war games; China denounces drills,” Washington Post, 2 December 2010.

[97] Norimitsu Onishi, “The Evolution of a Man Called ‘Bulldozer’ ” New York Times, 20 December 2007.

[98] Myung-bak Lee, “Address to the Nation by President Lee Myung-bak on the Shelling of Yeonpyeongdo by North Korea,” Cheong Wa Dae [ROK presidential office], 29 November 2010.

[99] Leon V. Sigal, “Can Washington and Seoul Try Dealing With Pyongyang for a Change?,” Arms Control Association, November 2010.; Robert  Carlin and John W. Lewis, “Review U.S. policy toward North Korea,” Washington Post, 22 November 2010.; Hecker, “Lessons Learned from the North Korean Nuclear Crises.”, ———, “A Return Trip to North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Complex.”, ———, “Return trip to North Korea (presentation)

“. Jack  Pritchard and Nicole   Finneman, “North Korea Reveals Uranium Enrichment Facility and Light Water Reactor,” Korea Economic Institute, 2 December 2010.

[100] Timothy Savage, “Demography is Destiny: Why South Korea Hasn’t Seen the Last of the Sunshine,” 38 North, 12 August 2010.

[101] Sei-young Lee, “S.Korea to resume artillery exercises on Yeonpyeong,” Hankyroreh, 2 December 2010.

[102] Se-young Lee, “Defense minister-designate voices support for self-defense air raids,” Hankyoreh, 4 December 2010.

[103] Mark McDonald, “South Korean Outlines Muscular  Military Posture,” New York Times, 3 December 2010.

[104] Glenn Kessler, “Analysis: North Korea tests U.S. policy of ‘strategic patience’,” Washington Post, 27 May 2010, John Pomfret, “U.S., allies working on new North Korea strategy,” Washington Post, 16 September 2010, Jackson Diehl, “Obama’s foreign policy needs an update,” Washington Post, 22 November 2010.

[105] Joel S. Wit, “Don’t Sink Diplomacy,” New York Times, 18 May 2010, John Feffer, “North Korea: Why Engagement Now?,” 38 North, 12 August 2010, Christine  Ahn and Haeyoung Kim, “Sixty Years of Failed Sanctions,” Korea Policy Institute (2010), Mike Chinoy, “No Hostile Intent: A Look Back at Kim Jong Il’s Dramatic Overture to the Clinton Administration,” 38 North (2009), Sigal, “Can Washington and Seoul Try Dealing With Pyongyang for a Change?.”, Carlin and Lewis, “Review U.S. policy toward North Korea.”

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