At its core, the cabinet judges that public anger and the call to “crush” Hamas will outlast the US estimation of a ‘few weeks’ war at most.
Biden and his team, who were angling for a full ceasefire, have been comprehensively rebuffed. The Cabinet and the Israeli military were chaffing under the constraints of a ceasefire.
Once any military action is stopped, the longer the “time out”, the harder it is to begin again. As expected, the truce now has come to an end. American expectations were unrealistic, given the mood of the public and the unity within Netanyahu’s Cabinet.
Effectively, we are entering a new war — for it will be on a markedly different scale. For one, the Hamas leadership has said that in this next phase, the main fighting force (three-quarters of all its Gaza fighting men) will engage the Israeli soldiers; and secondly, because the war is likely to widen and take new and unexpected paths.
Not only did Netanyahu and his team snub Biden — Blinken said to Gallant, “You only have a few more weeks,” to which Gallant replied, It “will be months,” to which Blinken snapped back, “I don’t think you have months” — but significantly, Netanyahu’s Cabinet ministers also knowingly – and deliberately — cut across the ‘red line’ enunciated by the united Resistance fronts: Stop the massacre in Gaza, or else!
Why knowingly and deliberately?
Because “Israel’s” Cabinet war aims are in a process of metamorphosis — partly to escape censure for the lapses that allowed October 7 to take “Israel” by surprise, Netanyahu the ‘master of image maker’ is shifting public attention away from the initial Hamas attack (which he blames on Military and Intelligence shortcomings) to paint a canvas of 7 October events in the dramatic brush-strokes as the opening round of a ‘Second War of Independence.’
In short, “Israel” is fighting a no-choice war. And “Israel’s” survival (and Netanyahu’s personal political survival) is possible only if the war is prolonged since it is a formative “national struggle”.
The cabinet strategy, therefore, rests on the bet that Israeli public opinion will hold (despite Netayahu’s personal disapproval ratings), due to the overwhelming public support at this point for the two declared objects set by the war cabinet: Destroying the ‘Hamas regime’ and its capabilities and the release of all Israeli captives in Gaza.
At its core, the cabinet judges that public anger and the call to “crush” Hamas will outlast the US estimation of a ‘few weeks’ war at most. On this, Netanyahu and his cabinet seem to be on firm ground.
A poll published last Friday by the Israeli Democratic Institute reported that 90% of the public fully support the “annihilation of Hamas.”
IDI’s Director commented that the poll underscored that nothing had changed in terms of Israeli attitudes: There is no basis, the director noted, in his sounding of opinion, to support either a ceasefire or a political solution. For the Israeli public, there can be no stability until “Hamas is eradicated.”
The second step taken by “Israel’s” cabinet is to support Netanyahu’s artistry of a “heroic, no-choice struggle” by coloring the coming ‘War of Independence’ in absolute Manichean terms: light versus the dark; civilization versus barbarism.
This is intended to kindle a wave of support for the key step of taking the “fiction” of a political agreement with the Palestinians off the table — “once and for all.”
The ‘table’ is being set for a long Israeli war against ‘cosmic evil’.
“Only I [Netanyahu] can prevent a Palestinian State ever coming into being in Gaza, Judea or Samaria”: “I will not allow it”. “There will never be” [a Palestinian state]”. ‘Only I can manage relations with Biden (a 40 year friendship). Only I know how to manage the US psyche’.
“I am leading”… ‘not only on behalf of Jewish history but also Western civilization’.
It is a typical narcissistic Netanyahu bluster. Agreed. But it is also an all too common mistake in the West to underestimate one’s adversaries. Netanyahu’s bluster may work. It seems from the polling that it will. (Netanyahu is a fox).
Haaretz military affairs correspondent Amos Harel writes:
“The anger in Israel over these events (surrounding 7th October), is mounting continuously … the emotional considerations come on top of the prevailing notion among the public that without the total defeat of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, there is no prospect of reducing the damage wrought by the surprise attack. Moreover, that without a military victory on this scale, it will be impossible to deter Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon from attempting similar actions in the future”.
It cannot be spelled out more clearly than from these statements by Netanyahu (“no Palestinian State”) that “Israel” is pushing for a Second Nakba. Netanyahu is building — with his florid Manichaeanism popular domestic support — toward a silent new ultimatum for Gaza: “Emigration or annihilation”. And later, in the West Bank, too.
So, here comes the ‘new war’: A Hebraic civilizational war to establish a ‘new’ “Israel” on the “Land Of Israel” versus the emerging Islamic nationalism undergirded by civilizational (non-institutional) Islam.
Hamas — indeed — has shattered the paradigm. The “two-states notion” has slipped under the waves.
The opinions mentioned in this article do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Al mayadeen, but rather express the opinion of its writer exclusively.
By Alastair Crooke, Director of Conflicts Forum; Former Senior British Diplomat; Author.
Published by Al Mayadeen
Republished by The 21st Century
The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of 21cir.com.