Syrian “Opposition” Prepares Political and Military August / September Campaign

New Opposition Leader, Saudi-Arabia – based, “Independent” Ahmed Assi Jaber endorsed by U.S. State Department. Reports about increased insurgent activities in Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan and Golan indicate new political and military campaign against Syria in August  and September 2013. 

 

 

Towards a Transitional Government. The foreign-backed Syrian Opposition has elected the Saudi-Arabia – based, “independent”, Ahmad Assi Jaber as new leader of the National Coalition and the Revolutionary Forces of Syria.

The election of Ahmad Assi Jaber, has been strongly supported by Saudi-Arabia. The election of Ahmad Assi Jabr has also been endorsed by the United States. The U.S. Department of State expressed its hope, that the election of Ahmad Assi Jabr will lead toward the establishment of a transitional national government.

Ahmad Assi Jabr is one of the core members of the National Council of Syria, which was established in 2011, in Turkey. Most of the known, original core members of the National Council had close ties to US interests, including the National Endowment for Democracy, Reagan Fascell Fellowships, and other organizations and institutes around the US policy-makers Henry Kissinger and Zbigniev Brzezinski.

A spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, Jen Psak, expressed, that the United States is:

“prepared to work with Jaber, to prevent a complete collapse of Syria and chaos, and to revive its social system. 

The State Department spokesperson continues, saying:

“The united opposition is needed to achieve a negotiated political solution in which Bashar al-Assad has to resign, and a new, transitional government will lead the Syrians for the dignity, freedom and hope for the future.”

 

 

Chances for Geneva 2 Remain Negligible.  The new opposition leader, Ahmed Assi Jaber, has previously endorsed the position, that negotiations with the Syrian government would be counter-productive, as long as the opposition´s militants have not gotten the upper hand in the military theater.

Jabr has not issued statements to the contrary since his election. The support of Jabr by Saudi-Arabia, his endorsement by the U.S. State Department and association to the strongly Kissinger and Brzezinski influenced National Council  indicate, that neither the Saudi, nor the U.S. policy with regard to finding a political solution for the war in Syria have changed toward a more peaceful approach. To the contrary, Jaber´s election indicates a push for a more coherent military and political affront; That is, Russian attempts to hold the Geneva 2 talks will be stalled while a more coherent military assault is initiated and bears fruit, until the opposition eventually would gain the upper hand militarily.

 

 

Although official U.S. Foreign Policy and U.S. Secretary of State, John Kerry, repeatedly reassured Russia´s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, that the USA is working toward holding the Geneva 2 conference, the political and military actuality suggests otherwise.

The endorsement of the Saudi-Arabia backed hardliner, Ahmed Assi Jabr indicates, that the chances for holding the Geneva 2 conference on Syria are negligible, and that genuine political dialog remains out of the question unless the opposition either has gained the upper hand militarily, or until it has been decisively defeated.

Palestinian Intelligence Source Indicates Build-Up for Military Campaign in August – September 2013. An nsnbc source with close ties to the intelligence service of a Syria – based Palestinian faction reports, that there are strong indications for a preparation of a renewed military campaign against Syria in August or September 2013, and that it is highly probable, that Western, Arab and Israeli Forces will be playing an active role. The current, relative calm in Syria is reportedly deceptive and tied to attempts to increase the different insurgents forces and militia´s interoperability, communication, and the attempt to build a more centralized command and liaison structure.

 

 

Iraq: Reportedly, more than 17.000, battle-hardened, well-armed PKK fighters, which have recently withdrawn from Turkey are ready to deploy to Syria from the Kurdish administrated Iraqi region near Irbil on short notice. Analysts have predicted the evolution of a Kurdish front through Iraq since peace negotiations between the Turkish administration of Prime Minister Erdogan and PKK leader Öcalan indicated that the PKK would withdraw from Turkish territory. 

There are also reports about increased al-Qaeda activities in the Iraqi – Syrian border region. Many of the al-Qaeda-linked insurgents are coming from Saudi-Arabia, and are crossing into Iraq along well established smuggling routes in the Anbar province.

On Saturday, border patrols from the army of Iraq eliminated four prominent al-Qaeda leaders and arrested four others, who were attempting to infiltrate into Syria through the al-Qaem area in the al-Anbar province. Four SUVs were destroyed, several car bombs were dismantled.  Iraqi border patrols also uncovered a weapons cache and a workshop for car bombs in the Lazqa valley, near the Syrian border.

Jordan: Although official reports state, that no more than 700 or 1.000 U.S. troops have remained stationed in Jordan after the end of the annual, 19 nations military exercises in the Hashemite Kingdom, the actual number of U.S. troops, including special forces, is reportedly significantly higher, and may be as high as 2.500 in addition to those who remained to service the U.S.´s Partiot Missile Systems in Jordan and the remaining F-16 fighter jets, their pilots and necessary maintenance and logistics crew.

After the end of the Eager Lion exercises, U.S. President Obama stated:

“Our troops will stay there, until the security situation has changes so much, that their presence is no longer needed”. 

The opposition against the presence of the increased number of U.S. troops in Jordan is growing. Recently, the head of the al-Kudsk Center for Political Studies, Oraib Rintavi stated in an interview with AFP:

“The Jordanians do not feel comfortable with the presence of U.S. troops and their weapons in the country. For the common people of Jordan, the U.S. military presence is associated with a conspiracy against Jordan´s neighbors. . . Society does not welcome Americans here, even if they say that they want to protect our country”. 

Also the Deputy Speaker of the Jordanian Parliament, Khalil Atiya expressed his concerns about the increased presence of U.S. troops in Jordan, saying:

” As deputies, representing the Jordanian people, we do not accept the United States or any other country´s troops in Jordan. Jordanians do not think that Syria could pose a threat”. 

 

 

According to a recent report from nsnbc´s source, U.S. special forces are training predominantly foreign insurgents near the Jordanian – Syrian border city al-Mafraq. According to reports from within the ranks of these insurgents, U.S. troops are training some of the insurgents in targeting high value political and military targets in cooperation with air-support. The development indicates, that the United States is preparing air raids against targets in Syria.

Kuwait – Jordan. Kuwait´s Deputy Chief of the National Guards, Sheikh Meshaal al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah has held talks with the Director General of Public Security in Jordan, Lt. Gen. Tawfiq Hamid al-Tawalbah on Tuesday. On the agenda at the meeting, was boosting military cooperation between Kuwait and Jordan. Although Kuwait so far, has maintained a relatively passive posture with regard to the war on Syria, it is expected, that Kuwait will be playing a more significant role during the planned campaign against Syria in August and September.

Lebanon, Turkey, Golan Highs. Reportedly, there is also a buildup of insurgents in the Israeli occupied Syrian Golan, where Israel, according to an officer belonging to the Austrian Brigades of the UN Disengagement Forces, has established a joint military / insurgents operations room. The nsnbc source also detailed reports about increased recruitment activities in both Lebanon and Turkey, but has to refrain from revealing details in order not to endanger the intelligence sources or methods.

 Building of Weapons Caches in Preparation of August – September Storm on Syria. The relative calm in Syria, is according to the nsnbc source deceptive, as many of the insurgents currently have changed their focus from direct military clashes to preparing for a major assault on Syria in August and September. Preparatory activities include among other, the dissemination of Western, Israeli, Saudi-Arabian and Qatari weapons deliveries to caches throughout Syria.

Political and Military August – September Storm. Even though the foreign-backed opposition has elected a new leader in Ahmed Assi Jaber, a political resolution to the war on Syria, or the holding of the long overdue Geneva 2 conference on Syria remains illusive to the degree that Western talk about “talks” must be considered deceptive.

The Syria Crisis has evolved into a regional war, and the election of the Saudi-Arabia – based and backed Jaber indicates a continuation of the current strategy. No talks before the opposition has the upper hand – or until the international war on Syria has been decisively defeated.

The election of the new opposition leader and military preparations indicate a new, combined political and military storm on Syria in August and September, renewed calls for humanitarian corridors for “rebels”, for no-fly zones, and for chemical weapons inspections throughout Syria.