The situation in Syria remains complex but recent developments point to potential future scenarios, Stanislav Tarasov, a political analyst and expert on the Middle East and Caucasus region, told Sputnik.
Why did regime change happen so quickly?
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has peacefully transferred power to the opposition in line with the Doha agreement days after the militants launched their advance.
“An internal conspiracy was likely brewing within the Syrian leadership and military personnel,” Tarasov suggested.
Who will govern Syria?
It is still unclear which opposition group will dominate. Tarasov argued that if the secular opposition prevails, Syria will have a secular government. Conversely, if Islamist factions take control, the country may see a Taliban*-style leadership.
It’s Too Early to Say the Syria Crisis is Close to an End – Pundit
Why are Israel and the US interested in balkanizing Syria?
Tarasov believes the odds of Syria’s fragmentation are high, with potential scenarios including:
- Turkiye taking control of Aleppo and Idlib
- The Kurds establishing their own state with backing from Israel and the US
- The rest of the country being divided into various enclaves
According to Tarasov, the US and Israel have already started implementing their plan for Syria’s fragmentation, as shown by the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
Regional ambitions and possible risks
Tarasov claims that Israel may be planning to annex Gaza and the West Bank and to fragment Lebanon in order to weaken Lebanese Islamic resistance movement Hezbollah.
*Under UN sanctions for terrorist activities
By Ekaterina Blinova
Published by Sputnik Globe
Republished by The 21st Century
The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of 21cir.com